More stable natural gas price range helps Wyo forecasting group

by Phil Noble, Cowboy State Free Press Bureau Chief

CHEYENNE–The lead economist for the state’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Group says natural gas prices in recent months are in what he calls a “sweet spot” for Wyoming–the $4-5 per mcf (the measurement for pricing of natural gas) range, making it easier to predict the state’s future income.

“Natural gas prices are not swinging as much as they once were,” Jim Robinson of Wyoming’s Economic Analysis Division said, which makes the CREG’s forecasting job just a little easier.

But, he said, the latest CREG report showed mineral severance tax revenues climbing above $150 million, which was over $32 million or 18 percent more than the CREG had projected. However, “natural gas prices peaked in January and have been on a downhill slide since then,” Robinson said.

Sales and use taxes, though, are on a slightly upward swing. They account for almost 40 percent of the state’s general fund revenue. Those numbers are still about five percent below the CREG’s forecast.

“Spending by consumers and businesses remains weak around the state but should show some improvement over the next several months as employment numbers start to recover,” Robinson said.

He said the employment picture for Wyoming has improved somewhat since the CREG adjusted its forecast in January, resulting in slightly increased spending by consumers and thus increased sales and use tax revenues.